China Promised to Buy 25 Million Tons of U.S. Soybeans. Is It Actually on Track?

The numbers increasingly say yes. But nearly 9 million tons are still waiting to ship—and politics may determine whether they ever do.

For much of 2025, the U.S.–China soybean trade story was remarkably simple: China was not buying. Then came the October 2025 meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping and, with it, a remarkably specific soybean commitment. The White House subsequently announced that China would purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans during the final two months of 2025, followed by at least 25 MMT in each calendar year from 2026 through 2028. Those were precise numbers with seemingly precise deadlines, but almost immediately, measuring whether China was actually meeting them became considerably less precise.

The first 12 MMT promise became a moving target

The initial commitment sounded straightforward: China would purchase at least 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans during November and December 2025, yet the trade did not suddenly jump. U.S. soybean trade with China had essentially collapsed during the fall of 2025. Purchases eventually resumed, primarily through Chinese state-owned companies, but not quickly enough to make the original timeline look particularly convincing. As December progressed, public discussion increasingly shifted from fulfillment by the end of 2025 to fulfillment in early 2026. By February, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China was on track to fulfill its 12 MMT commitment by the end of that month. Eventually, purchases broadly reached the promised level.

At the end of February 2026, USDA's Beijing office reported that approximately 11 MMT had been purchased or shipped specifically to China, while another 2 MMT remained classified as Unknown. USDA noted that Chinese state-owned enterprises commonly report purchases initially as Unknown, but importantly, it did not assume that every ton in that category was ultimately destined for China.

So did China eventually buy roughly 12 MMT? Yes.

Did the trade fit neatly into the original promise of 12 MMT during the final two months of 2025? Not really.

We can give policymakers some reasonable benefit of the doubt here. Agricultural trade has several different clocks running simultaneously. Politicians sometimes mix calendar years, marketing years, purchase dates and actual shipment dates when discussing commodity trade. A soybean sale announced in December can easily become a physical export several months later, but the distinction matters because the next commitment is much larger.

Calendar 2025 shows just how much trade has disappeared

Looking at the trade on a calendar-year basis illustrates how extraordinary 2025 was. According to our analysis of U.S. trade data, U.S. soybean exports to China totaled only 7.4 MMT in CY2025, compared with

2024: 26.8 MMT

2023: 26.4 MMT

2022: 30.2 MMT

2021: 27.4 MMT

2020: 34.2 MMT

From 2024 to 2025 alone, U.S. soybean exports to China collapsed by roughly 72%. That is not simply a weak export year. It represents a dramatic disruption of one of the world's largest agricultural trade flows and provides important context for the promise that followed.

Now the number to watch is 25 MMT

Under the agreement, China committed to purchasing at least 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans in calendar 2026, with the same minimum volume in 2027 and 2028. This is where we need to be careful with the data. Soybean analysts naturally tend to think in September–August marketing years. USDA's Export Sales reporting also organizes soybean trade around the marketing year. But the political commitment is explicitly stated in calendar-year terms. If we want to know whether China is on track for 25 MMT in 2026, we need to start counting on January 1. And viewed that way, the numbers look considerably stronger.

China has already taken 11.2 MMT

Based on U.S. trade data through July supplemented with USDA shipment data for August, we estimate U.S. soybean exports to China at approximately 11.2 MMT during January–August 2026. That compares with only 5.93 MMT during the same eight months of 2025. In other words, U.S. soybean exports to China have increased approximately 89% year over year. China has therefore already physically imported a volume equivalent to approximately 45% of its 25 MMT commitment, and that happened before the most important portion of the traditional U.S. soybean export season.

Monthly trade data clearly show why that matters. Historically, U.S. soybean exports accelerate dramatically during the fall following the U.S. harvest, particularly in October and November. China is normally the dominant destination during this window before South America's next crop becomes available. China needs approximately an additional 13.8 MMT of physical U.S. soybean imports to reach 25 MMT. Historically and logistically, that is entirely achievable, but there is another number that makes the situation even more interesting.

Nearly 9 MMT on the books

As of September 3, USDA Export Sales data show 8.98 MMT of new-crop U.S. soybeans outstanding specifically to China. These soybeans have been committed but have not yet been exported. That volume alone is equivalent to another 36% of China's 25 MMT commitment. There is also another 5.78 MMT classified as Unknown destinations. Combining China and Unknown would result in nearly 15 MMT of new-crop outstanding sales, but we are not going to do that. Some of the Unknown volume may ultimately be China. Historically, Chinese purchases—particularly those involving state companies—can initially appear as Unknown. But for now, "Unknown" means "unknown". We do not think it is analytically appropriate to arbitrarily assume that all, or even half, of that volume belongs to China simply because doing so produces a more interesting number. Therefore, our analysis counts only the 9 MMT USDA currently identifies specifically as China.

So is China already 81% of the way there?

Sort of.

11.18 + 8.98 = 20.16 MMT

That is equivalent to approximately 81% of the promised 25 MMT. On paper, that certainly looks like China is on track, but there is a very large asterisk attached to that 81%. The 11 MMT represents soybeans that have actually moved, while the 9 MMT did not. Those are outstanding sales contracts awaiting execution. Moreover, USDA's outstanding sales figure belongs to the 2026/27 marketing year, while China's promise applies to calendar 2026. Some of those soybeans could therefore ship after December 31. So we would not describe China as having already "fulfilled 81%" of its commitment.

There is something unusual about those 9 MMT

This is where the story becomes more political than agricultural. The recent surge in U.S. soybean purchases does not necessarily represent a broad return of normal Chinese commercial demand. Chinese commercial crushers have reportedly aggressively purchased Brazilian soybeans and have much of their near-term needs covered through December. Meanwhile, U.S. soybeans continue to face a tariff disadvantage in China, so for a private crusher, those economics matter. If Brazilian soybeans are competitive and already available without the additional tariff burden facing U.S. beans, there is little commercial incentive to suddenly accumulate millions of tons of American soybeans. Yet somebody is buying them, and the recent purchases appear to have been concentrated heavily among Chinese state entities.

Earlier this year, USDA's Beijing office reported that purchases associated with China's initial soybean commitment had been limited to state-owned enterprises, while the additional Chinese tariff continued to constrain commercial purchases. More recently, Chinese state buyers have again been associated with large purchases of U.S. soybeans as the anticipated U.S.–China leaders' meeting approaches. That changes how we interpret the outstanding-sales book. This does not look like China suddenly rediscovered its appetite for U.S. soybeans. China never lost its appetite for soybeans, it found other suppliers. What appears to be returning now is state-directed demand for U.S. soybeans tied to a broader political agreement.

Is China on track for 25 MMT? Yes, but don't count those beans yet

Based strictly on the numbers available today, our answer is: Yes, China is increasingly on track to reach 25 MMT in 2026. They still needs approximately 14 MMT of actual imports during the remainder of the calendar year to reach 25 MMT. Historically, that is not an extraordinary volume for China to take during the U.S. fall export window. The United States has the soybeans and the export system can move them. China certainly has enough annual soybean demand to consume them, so the primary constraint increasingly isn't agricultural. It is political. And that is why we would be careful about treating the nearly 9 MMT of outstanding Chinese sales as if those soybeans were already safely across the Pacific. They aren't.

Outstanding sales can be shipped. They can be deferred. They can also be cancelled. And the recent accumulation of Chinese purchases has occurred ahead of another important U.S.–China meeting. If negotiations proceed smoothly and Beijing continues directing state companies to purchase U.S. soybeans, the 25 MMT commitment increasingly looks achievable. But if negotiations deteriorate, another dispute erupts, or Washington takes an action Beijing considers unacceptable, that enormous outstanding-sales book suddenly becomes much more vulnerable. The nearly 9 MMT mountain of soybeans currently waiting to ship could melt surprisingly quickly—like ice cream in the Washington D.C. heat—if the political temperature rises.

The bigger question is what kind of soybean market America has regained

And perhaps that is the more important takeaway. China buying U.S. soybeans again does not necessarily mean the U.S.–China soybean relationship has returned to normal. Commercial Chinese buyers remain heavily connected to Brazil. Brazil has dramatically expanded soybean production and exports over the past decade and has become China's dominant supplier. Tariffs continue to distort the economics. The current U.S. export program therefore appears increasingly dependent on state-directed Chinese purchasing associated with political commitments. That is very different from having millions of tons of commercially competitive demand that exists regardless of what happens in Washington or Beijing.

So yes, China may very well reach 25 MMT this year, but if Washington has to keep walking on eggshells to ensure millions of tons of already-contracted soybeans actually leave U.S. ports, then the underlying vulnerability in America's soybean relationship with China has not disappeared, and as long as soybeans remain intertwined with the broader political relationship, every new mountain of outstanding sales comes with the same warning:

Don't count the beans until they ship.