The U.S. tallow market is undergoing another notable shift, and this time the story is not only about the sheer scale of imports, but also about the changing composition of those imports. Over the last several years, the United States has rapidly transformed from a relatively modest participant in global tallow trade into the world’s largest import destination. That change has been driven overwhelmingly by booming demand for inedible tallow as a feedstock for renewable diesel

The U.S. vegetable oil market is entering a strange and increasingly important phase that deserves far more attention than it currently receives. According to the latest USDA vegetable oil projections analyzed in my recent report, food use of palm oil in the United States continues to trend higher even as domestic soybean oil and Canadian canola are increasingly absorbed into renewable diesel and biofuel markets. At first glance, this may sound like a niche agricultural story

The global vegetable oil market is changing in ways that many participants are still underestimating. For decades, vegetable oil demand was largely a food story. Population growth, rising incomes, urbanization, and changing diets drove consumption growth across major importing markets. Biofuels certainly played an important role, particularly in Europe, but food remained the dominant lens through which most market participants analyzed vegetable oils. That framework is changi

A Decade of Structural Change For most of the past decade, U.S. tallow imports were relatively small and largely irrelevant in the global context. Volumes remained modest through the mid-2010s, reflecting a market where domestic production was sufficient to meet demand and exports were still a meaningful outlet. That dynamic has completely changed. Starting around 2019–2020, imports began to trend higher, but the real inflection point came after 2021. Since then, volumes have

U.S. Vegetable Oil Trade U.S. Vegetable Oil Import and Export US-India Trade Deal Talk: Why Bulk Crops Are Unlikely and Why Soybean Oil Is the Real (But Limited) Story Talk of a potential U.S.-India trade deal has re-energized agricultural markets. Early price reactions, particularly in soybean oil, suggest optimism that U.S. farm exports to India could expand meaningfully. Headlines, however, tend to flatten a far more complex reality. To understand what’s plausible (and w

U.S. Soybean Meal Exports: A Flat Start to 2025/26 Masks Diverging Market Signals U.S. soybean meal exports in the first quarter of the 2025/26 marketing year (October–December) got off to a steady, but uneven start. On the surface, total exports during the period were essentially flat year over year compared with the same months of 2024/25. At the aggregate level, this suggests the U.S. export program is holding its ground early in the season, neither accelerating nor showin

The 2025/26 marketing year is turning into a live experiment: What does U.S. soybean trade look like without China? So far, the answer is: surprisingly resilient, as long as the U.S. stays competitively priced. Because up to mid-November, according to USDA AMS inspections, the United States has shipped almost 10 million metric tons of soybeans to markets other than China, and zero to China itself. That is not a normal pattern. The only recent parallel is 2018/19, during Trade

The USDA may be back in business after the government shutdown, but the data pipeline is still far from fully restored. Earlier today, USDA announced that it will take several more weeks to catch up on Export Sales reporting. For now, analysts must rely heavily on Export Inspections combined with the limited “mini releases” USDA has been able to publish. The partial visibility tells an increasingly consistent story: U.S. soybean exports are struggling, and the deterioration i

As the 2024/25 marketing year (October-September) for Brazil soybeans comes to an end, final trade data confirms what we’ve been tracking throughout the year: another massive export campaign, increasingly concentrated toward China, with notable shifts across non-China buyers. We’ve broken down the latest trade flows and market share trends to highlight what’s changed, what’s holding steady, and what it all means heading into 2025/26. Total Exports: Slight Dip from Record, Sti

Will More Argentine Beef Lower U.S. Prices? A Data-Driven Reality Check 1. The Political Claim vs. the Market Reality The latest proposal from Washington to import more beef from Argentina as a way to reduce prices for U.S. consumers sounds simple enough. More imports, more supply, lower prices. But beef markets rarely move in straight lines. A look at the data shows that the United States already imports record volumes of beef, and Argentina is too small a player to meaningf

Recent developments in U.S. soybean meal exports have been nothing short of compelling and they’re drawing attention across ag markets and policy circles alike. With the 2024/25 marketing year (October-September) nearing its close, it’s time to look at the numbers and see what they’re telling us about how this year is ending and what momentum might carry into next year. The August 2025 WASDE report finally adjusted USDA’s U.S. soybean meal export estimate upward to 16.2 milli

A new week brings a new USDA Export Sales report and with it, another round of disappointment for U.S. soybean exporters: no new crop soybean sales to China. As the chart below illustrates, the 2025/26 season is off to a bleak start. Not only are total sales lagging historical levels, but the complete absence of Chinese buying is now an ongoing trend, not a blip. A Familiar Pattern, With a New Twist Industry chatter suggests that September and October sales windows may alread

21 August 2025|U.S. Soybean Export Sales 📊 Soybean Export Sales Update (August 7, 2025): While old-crop sales show a modest year-over-year improvement, new-crop sales continue to lag significantly, particularly in the absence of Chinese buying. 📦 Old-Crop (2024/25) Outstanding Sales Outstanding sales stand at 3.6 million metric tons (MMT), nearly 17% higher than the same period last year. However, this improvement comes with an important caveat: sales remain well below lev