June Soybean Exports Beat Expectations, but the Bigger Story Hasn't Changed

USDA's June 2026 trade data generated considerable attention after U.S. soybean exports reached approximately 1.9 million metric tons (MMT). The figure exceeded many market expectations and marked the strongest June export performance since 2022.

For those following USDA's weekly Export Sales reports, however, the result was hardly unexpected. Weekly sales and shipment data had already indicated a stronger June, underscoring the value of monitoring export activity throughout the month rather than waiting for the official Census release.

The same pattern appears to be developing again. Based on July Export Sales data, another solid month of shipments is taking shape. Current sales and inspections suggest July exports could approach 2.2 MMT, while August shipments could finish near 2.0 MMT. If realized, U.S. soybean exports for the 2025/26 marketing year (September-August) would reach approximately 42.5-42.6 MMT, modestly above USDA's current forecast of 41.4 MMT. At this late stage of the marketing year, USDA generally prefers incremental adjustments rather than significant revisions. A modest increase in the August WASDE would not be surprising, but neither would maintaining the current forecast until final trade data become available.

The Monthly Headlines Don't Change the Annual Story

Whether exports ultimately finish at 41.4 MMT or 42.6 MMT does little to change the overall picture. Even at the higher estimate, 2025/26 would still represent the smallest U.S. soybean export program since 2012/13. That comparison deserves a closer look.

In 2012/13, the United States produced approximately 83 MMT of soybeans. In 2025/26, production is estimated at 116 MMT, an increase of almost 40%. The numbers suggest that the challenge facing the U.S. soybean industry is finding sufficient export demand beyond China to keep pace with production growth.

Data Source: U.S. Census, USDA GATS

One of the clearest ways to see how the U.S. soybean market has evolved is to look beyond export volumes and examine how the crop is being utilized.

In 2012/13:

• 44% of U.S. soybean production was exported.

• 56% was processed through domestic crush.

  
  

Today, the picture looks very different. In 2025/26:

• Exports account for approximately 36% of production.

• Domestic crush has increased to roughly 62% of production.

  
  

These percentages tell a far more important story than export volumes alone. While soybean production has expanded over the past decade, nearly all of that additional growth has been absorbed by domestic processors rather than overseas buyers.

Investments in crush capacity, supported by growing demand for renewable diesel, soybean meal, and soybean oil, have created an increasingly strong domestic market that simply did not exist thirteen years ago.

Two Industries Looking at the Same Balance Sheet

The 2025/26 marketing year highlights a striking contrast within the U.S. soybean industry. For exporters, this has been one of the most disappointing years in over a decade. Brazil's record crops, aggressive export pricing, expanding logistics network, and continued dominance in the Chinese market left relatively little room for U.S. exporters to expand sales. While late-season shipments have exceeded expectations, they do not materially change the weakest export performance in more than a decade.

For domestic processors, however, the outlook appears considerably different. Instead of seeking additional export demand, the focus remains on expanding crush capacity, securing soybean supplies, and meeting the growing demand for soybean meal and soybean oil. New processing facilities continue to be announced, while investments in renewable diesel provide additional support for domestic soybean consumption. The same soybean balance sheet tells two very different stories depending on which part of the industry you operate in. One group is searching for the next export customer, while the other is planning the next crush plant.

What About Stocks?

The evolution of ending stocks reinforces many of the trends visible elsewhere in the balance sheet. Historically, the U.S. soybean market operated with relatively small inventories because exports represented the primary source of demand. Soybeans moved quickly through the supply chain, and there was little need to maintain large year-round stocks. Today's market looks different. Although the 2025/26 marketing year is on track to record the weakest soybean export program since 2012/13, ending stocks are projected close to 9 MMT, with a stocks-to-use ratio of approximately 12%. By historical standards, those are manageable levels rather than burdensome inventories. That is a remarkable outcome considering this is also the weakest export program in more than a decade. The reason is straightforward. Record domestic crushing has absorbed much of the export shortfall. Without the rapid expansion in soybean processing over the past several years, the decline in exports would almost certainly have resulted in a much larger increase in ending stocks.

We had a different situation between 2018 and 2020. The first U.S.-China trade dispute demonstrated how quickly inventories can accumulate when the world's largest soybean importer sharply reduces purchases of U.S. soybeans. Ending stocks climbed above 25 MMT, while the stocks-to-use ratio exceeded 40%, levels that fundamentally altered market sentiment and weighed heavily on prices. That episode highlighted an important lesson for the industry. If the United States cannot consistently rely on the world's largest soybean importer to absorb production growth, additional demand must increasingly come from somewhere else. In practice, that "somewhere else" has been domestic processing. Expanding crush capacity has become an effective way of creating new demand at home, supporting soybean utilization without asking producers to reduce acreage. Whether domestic processing can fully offset slower export growth over the long term remains an open question. What the 2025/26 balance sheet demonstrates, however, is that a much larger crushing industry has significantly reduced the risk that export weakness will translate directly into excessive soybean inventories.

Can the United States Regain Export Momentum?

This is likely to become one of the defining questions for the U.S. soybean market over the remainder of this decade. The United States remains one of the world's largest soybean exporters, supported by long-standing commercial relationships with Mexico, the European Union, Egypt, Japan, and numerous Southeast Asian markets. Those customers will remain essential. The greater challenge lies in generating meaningful export growth. Brazil continues to expand production, improve logistics, and offer highly competitive prices across much of the marketing year. As a result, commercial opportunities for the United States to regain significant market share, particularly in China, have become increasingly limited. Trade agreements or government-supported purchasing commitments can certainly influence trade flows from time to time. However, sustained export growth will ultimately depend on commercial competitiveness rather than temporary political arrangements.

Final Thoughts

The stronger-than-expected June export numbers and the likelihood of another solid performance in July are certainly encouraging developments. They also remind us why closely following weekly Export Sales data often provides a clearer picture than reacting only to monthly trade releases. But late-season strength should not distract from the broader reality of the 2025/26 marketing year. Despite producing nearly 40% more soybeans than in 2012/13, the United States is on track to record its weakest export program in more than a decade. At the same time, domestic crush has reached record levels and continues to expand. Those two facts are not contradictory. Together, they describe an industry in which future growth is increasingly being captured inside the United States, while export markets have become considerably more competitive.

For much of the past two decades, the central question was whether the United States could produce enough soybeans to satisfy growing demand. Today, the more difficult question is where future demand will come from. Will future soybean demand be created at domestic crush plants or at export terminals?