Rethinking Global Soybean Meal Trade 2025/26 & Glance To 2026/27 (January 2026)
Rethinking Global Soybean Meal Trade: Uncovering Missed Growth in USDA’s 2025/26 Forecasts. BONUS: First Look at 2026/27 Potential U.S. Soybean Meal Balance Sheet.
USDA’s current soybean meal outlook for the 2025/26 marketing year points to a sharp slowdown in global trade growth following two consecutive years of expansion. This report takes a deeper look at those projections and asks a critical question: do official forecasts fully reflect current market dynamics?
Through a detailed review of USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) data, historical forecasting patterns, and evolving supply-and-demand fundamentals, this analysis identifies areas where soybean meal production, exports, and imports may be understated. The report presents alternative scenario that account for biofuel-driven crush expansion in major producing countries, shifting trade flows, and continued growth in global protein feed consumption.
Key topics covered include:
Supply-side upside in the United States and Brazil driven by crush capacity, extraction rates, and biofuel policies
Argentina’s tightening supply situation and implications for global soybean meal trade
Incremental export potential from smaller suppliers and its impact on global balances
Reassessment of soybean meal import demand across the European Union, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and other key markets
Implications for global trade growth
This report is particularly timely as USDA prepares its first 2026/27 outlook. If assumptions for the current marketing year are misaligned, those biases risk being carried forward into future projections. By reassessing 2025/26 now, this analysis provides market participants with a clearer framework for evaluating risks, opportunities, and trade strategy in the year ahead.
8.5 pages of discussion narrative.
Intended audience: grain traders, processors, feed manufacturers, policy analysts, agribusiness strategists, and market participants seeking a deeper, data-driven perspective beyond baseline forecasts.
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