Soybean Market Review U.S. Soybeans Without China (October 2025)

Soybean Market Review: U.S. Soybeans Without China. Global Trade Rebalancing and Market Implications (October 2025)

Abstract: The Soybean Market Review provides a comprehensive, data-driven assessment of the global soybean market as the 2025/26 season begins. With China’s unofficial boycott of U.S. soybeans reshaping trade flows, this 24-page report explores how global supply, demand, and trade dynamics could rebalance under alternative scenarios. Demetrica examines how U.S. soybeans might be redirected to other buyers, the potential volume by destination, and the broader implications for prices, stocks, and domestic crush.

What’s Inside

This report combines narrative analysis with hard data, offering both qualitative insights and quantitative projections. Using historical patterns and current market indicators, Demetrica models two forward-looking scenarios for 2025/26:

• Scenario 1: U.S. soybeans successfully redirected to alternative markets, stabilizing exports.

• Scenario 2: Weak export outlook with rising domestic stocks and heavy reliance on crush demand.

  
  

Included are visuals presenting:

• U.S. soybean production, balance, and export structure

• Projected export volumes and shares by destination under both scenarios

• Analysis of China vs. Rest of World (ROW) import demand trends

• Historical comparisons from 2018/19 to present trade cycles

• Summary of global production, trade, and demand shifts shaping the next season

Why It Matters

As global headlines focus on China’s retreat from U.S. soy, Demetrica fills the gap between media speculation and the absence of official USDA forward-looking analysis. This report delivers clear, evidence-based insights—grounded in data, supported by scenario modeling, and essential for anyone tracking the next chapter of global soybean trade.