Final 2024/25 Brazil Soybean Exports. What the Numbers Reveal? (27 October 2025)

As the 2024/25 marketing year (October-September) for Brazil soybeans comes to an end, final trade data confirms what we’ve been tracking throughout the year: another massive export campaign, increasingly concentrated toward China, with notable shifts across non-China buyers. We’ve broken down the latest trade flows and market share trends to highlight what’s changed, what’s holding steady, and what it all means heading into 2025/26.

Total Exports: Slight Dip from Record, Still Historically High

Brazil exported just over 103 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans in 2024/25, down slightly (about 1%) from the prior year's all-time record of 104.2 MMT. While small in percentage terms, this decline reflects tight logistics early in the season and some shipment delays, not a drop in global demand. Despite the marginal year-on-year decrease, the export program remains historically strong and well above the five-year average.

China: Stronger Than Ever

Exports to China reached nearly 80 MMT, an all-time high and up 2% from last year. China’s share of Brazil’s soybean exports rose to 77%, continuing a steady upward trend. This increasing concentration sets Brazil’s position as the dominant soybean supplier to China.

Non-China Demand: Declining Volumes, Diversified Markets

Other than China destinations imported 23.4 MMT of soybeans from Brazil in 2024/25, down 10% year-over-year. Notable changes in the non-China segment include:

- Turkey saw the steepest drop, falling by over 2 MMT;

- EU, traditionally a major buyer, saw an 8% decline, however, that was only a little over half a million drop;

- Pakistan and Iran re-emerged as key buyers after near-zero imports the previous year;

- Taiwan, Iraq, and Bangladesh all increased their purchases, signaling continued opportunity in smaller, diversified markets.

Despite these fluctuations, the overall non-China market share declined to 23%, reflecting how reliant Brazil’s soybean complex has become on Chinese demand.

Country Highlights: Year-over-Year Movers

📈 Up:

China (+1.6 MMT)

Taiwan, Iraq, and Pakistan posted strong percentage increases from a low base.

📉 Down

Turkey (−2.3 MMT)

Bangladesh, Russia, and Vietnam all reduced imports significantly.

This reshuffling of buyers speaks to evolving demand patterns, trade policies, and global tariff disputes between major exporters and importers (aka China-U.S. trade war 2.0), all of which remain in flux heading into 2025/26.

📊 Strategic Takeaways

Market concentration is increasing: China accounted for over three-quarters of Brazil’s exports, which leaves Brazil vulnerable to shifts in Chinese import behavior, policy, or stock management strategies.

Non-China demand is fragmented: The rest of the world remains an important but less stable set of buyers. While year-to-year volatility exists, Brazil continues to serve over 30 non-China markets, helping buffer against risk.

📅 Looking Ahead to 2025/26

Demetrica’s baseline forecast expects Brazilian soybean exports to increase again next year, driven by record production and favorable pricing. However, the composition of buyers may continue to shift as the global supply chain rebalances. We will continue to monitor monthly trade flows and update our forecasts as more data becomes available.

📥 Want full Brazil soybean balance sheets with monthly crush and export projections? Explore our latest Brazil Soybean Report for 2024/25 updates and 2025/26 forecasts.