Soybean Export Sales Update (August 7, 2025)

21 August 2025|U.S. Soybean Export Sales

 📊 Soybean Export Sales Update (August 7, 2025): While old-crop sales show a modest year-over-year improvement, new-crop sales continue to lag significantly, particularly in the absence of Chinese buying.

📦 Old-Crop (2024/25) Outstanding Sales

Outstanding sales stand at 3.6 million metric tons (MMT), nearly 17% higher than the same period last year. However, this improvement comes with an important caveat: sales remain well below levels typically seen in historically stronger years. A breakdown of key buyers with soybeans on the books:🚢 Mexico: nearly 800,000 MT🚢 Taiwan: 340,000 MT🚢 Egypt, Japan, and Indonesia: each with over 200,000 MT🚢 Algeria, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam: approximately 70,000 MT each. The “Unknown” destination category accounts for 1.2 MMT, which is sizable. In past years, it was common for analysts to attribute roughly half of this category to anticipated sales to China. However, given the state of current U.S.-China trade relations, it would be highly speculative to assume any portion of these volumes will ultimately be shipped to China. In fact, China currently has no outstanding old-crop soybean purchases on the books, no surprise, but still a notable absence.🌱 New-Crop (2025/26) Outstanding Sales. The situation for new-crop soybeans is more concerning. Total outstanding sales for the 2025/26 marketing year are currently just below 3.6 MMT, representing a decline of nearly 21% compared to the same time in 2024/25. This is not only a year-over-year drop, it also places current forward sales below the levels recorded during the 2018/19 U.S.-China trade war, a particularly low benchmark in recent export history. Typically, by this point in the year, some early sales to China would be expected. For example, as of early August last year, China had over 560,000 MT of new-crop purchases on the books. This year, that number remains a flat zero. Leading destinations for new-crop 2025/26 sales include:🚢 Mexico: 1.2 MMT🚢 Pakistan: 400,000 MT🚢 Japan: 200,000 MT🚢 Egypt: 100,000 MT🚢 Taiwan: nearly 100,000 MT. Despite these pockets of demand, the overall picture for new-crop sales is undeniably weak. The absence of Chinese purchasing, both reported and in the “Unknown” category, remains a significant weight on the U.S. soybean export outlook.

🔍 Conclusion: In summary, while old-crop sales have edged higher compared to last year, they remain below normal benchmarks, and new-crop sales are facing considerable headwinds. The complete lack of engagement from China, typically the U.S.’s largest soybean customer, is a critical concern.

Data source: USDA U.S. Export Sales