Soybean Sales to China: Still a No-Show as New Season Starts (21 August 2025)

A new week brings a new USDA Export Sales report and with it, another round of disappointment for U.S. soybean exporters: no new crop soybean sales to China.

As the chart below illustrates, the 2025/26 season is off to a bleak start. Not only are total sales lagging historical levels, but the complete absence of Chinese buying is now an ongoing trend, not a blip.

A Familiar Pattern, With a New Twist

Industry chatter suggests that September and October sales windows may already be lost, with buyers staying on the sidelines amid renewed trade tariff tension between Washington and Beijing. This leaves U.S. exporters asking: Will we sell a single soybean to China in 2025/26?

We’ve seen this story before. During the last 2018/19 trade dispute, the United States successfully redirected some soybeans to other markets while Brazil supplied China. But the key difference now is Brazil’s transformation: through massive acreage expansion and record production, Brazil is now in a position to supply both China and the rest of the world, leaving the U.S. squeezed out.

Will a Smaller Crop Be a “Fix”?

In its August WASDE, USDA revised down U.S. soybean production and export expectations. This was widely seen as a “paper fix” for the balance sheet, especially since new crop export sales remain underwhelming. 

Looking at the chart, it’s hard to find a bright spot. But if we squint, there are a few:

• Mexico has more than doubled its purchases, reaching 1.5 million metric tons

• European Union sales have also nearly doubled to just under 300,000 tons

• Pakistan has bounced back after several years of GMO-related disruptions

• Export Sales report also showed sales to Bangladesh, Taiwan, Vietnam, and Egypt

Still, without China, total new crop outstanding sales are more than 20% below last season. That’s a steep hill to climb.

So What’s Next?

Thanks to robust domestic biofuel demand, the U.S. can crush some of this excess supply for soybean oil used in biodiesel. The USDA balance sheet for 2025/26 already assumes a strong crush pace and reduced ending stocks.

But with export projections still relatively optimistic, the math only works if something gives. Either:

• Exports pick up (unlikely without China), or

• Production falls further, easing the pressure on the balance sheet

If the crop gets smaller, USDA has a neat fix. But if the crop holds steady and export volumes remain weak, ending stocks could begin to rise, weighing on prices.

Final Thoughts

The lack of Chinese buying is no longer an anomaly; it's becoming the new baseline. And while other markets are showing resilience, they’re not enough to fill the China-sized hole in the U.S. export program. As the 2025/26 marketing year starts soon, all eyes will be on export updates, balance sheet adjustments, and how long the United States can keep waiting for a turnaround that may not come.

Stay tuned, we’ll be tracking it.