U.S. Soybean Export Momentum Fades (13 November 2025)

The USDA may be back in business after the government shutdown, but the data pipeline is still far from fully restored. Earlier today, USDA announced that it will take several more weeks to catch up on Export Sales reporting. For now, analysts must rely heavily on Export Inspections combined with the limited “mini releases” USDA has been able to publish. The partial visibility tells an increasingly consistent story: U.S. soybean exports are struggling, and the deterioration is broader than China alone.

Inspections Reveal a Deepening Shortfall

Since September 1, cumulative U.S. soybean inspections are running 5.2 million metric tons (MMT) below last year. While this gap is driven overwhelmingly by China’s absence, the trade wasn’t able to make up enough ground elsewhere.

There were bright spots, and they shouldn’t be ignored. Shipments increased significantly to:

• Egypt: +500,000 MT

• Bangladesh: +500,000 MT

• Pakistan: +500,000 MT

These are meaningful gains from markets that have historically been intermittent or price buyers. Unfortunately, the combined increase from these three destinations covers only 30% of the deficit created by China’s sharp pullback.

The math is simple: the U.S. cannot compensate for lost Chinese demand even with strong participation from “the rest of the world.”

Price Competitiveness Has Eroded

Over the past two weeks, U.S. soybeans have appreciated sharply, nearly eliminating the FOB Gulf discount relative to Brazil’s Paranaguá values. That price convergence matters. The brief period when the U.S. held a meaningful price advantage, particularly important for non-China buyers, has vanished. With Brazil competitively priced and boasting ample supplies ahead of its 2025 harvest, importers outside China have less incentive to shift volume to the U.S.

The inspection data reflects exactly that.

What This Means Ahead of the November WASDE

⏳ The widening export gap forces a difficult question: Can USDA maintain its current export projection? Or will the agency need to trim expectations by 5 MMT, aligning the forecast with what the flow data is already signaling?

At the moment, it’s hard to identify where these unsold beans will go, beyond perhaps 1 MMT being absorbed by higher domestic crush.

A realistic scenario for November could show:

• Production: –1 MMT

• Crush: +1 MMT

• Exports: 38-40 MMT

That said, USDA historically avoids making aggressive export cuts this early in the season. It would be uncharacteristic for the agency to “kill” the export program in the November WASDE. But the underlying math is not moving in the right direction.

Political Signals vs. Market Reality

Adding to the uncertainty, reports from today’s Chinese Ministry of Commerce press conference suggest that officials refused to confirm the U.S. soybean purchase commitment that China was reported to have made during the Trump-Xi meeting two weeks ago.

In other words, the political narrative and real physical demand remain out of sync, and the market is trading the latter.

Looking Ahead

Until USDA Export Sales system catches up, the industry must rely on inspections, price spreads, and partial releases to gauge the direction of U.S. soybean demand. So far, they point to a clear theme:

Weaker export momentum, tightening competitiveness, and a balance sheet increasingly defined by China’s absence.

Demetrica will continue to monitor the evolving data landscape closely — and update our models as new information becomes available.

Data sources: USDA AMS, USDA Export Sales, International Grains Council