U.S. Soybean Meal Exports: A Slow Start to 2025/26 (January 2026)

U.S. Soybean Meal Exports: A Flat Start to 2025/26 Masks Diverging Market Signals

U.S. soybean meal exports in the first quarter of the 2025/26 marketing year (October–December) got off to a steady, but uneven start. On the surface, total exports during the period were essentially flat year over year compared with the same months of 2024/25. At the aggregate level, this suggests the U.S. export program is holding its ground early in the season, neither accelerating nor showing signs of broader deterioration.

However, a closer look at destination-level performance tells a far more nuanced story.

Winners and Losers Beneath the Surface

The accompanying chart highlights year-over-year changes by destination and makes clear that export performance varied widely across markets. Several countries posted meaningful gains, including the Philippines, Japan, Mexico, Morocco, Ecuador, Honduras, and the Dominican Republic. These increases point to continued strength in select Southeast Asian, Latin American, and MENA markets where soybean meal remains competitively priced and demand for feed inputs continues to grow.

At the same time, a number of traditionally important destinations recorded notable declines compared with the same period last year. Canada, Vietnam, Venezuela, Indonesia, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and El Salvador all saw reduced shipments during the October-December window. In some cases, this reflects short-term procurement timing and inventory adjustments rather than a fundamental loss of demand, but it nonetheless highlights how uneven early-season trade has been.

A Fragmented European Picture

The European Union posted a modest year-over-year increase in U.S. soybean meal imports during the first quarter, but the headline number obscures significant internal divergence. Spain accounted for the bulk of the growth, while most other EU member states recorded declines over the same period. This pattern reinforces a long-standing feature of the EU market: soybean meal demand remains highly fragmented, sensitive to relative pricing, and influenced by country-specific feed demand and import strategies rather than uniform regional trends.

What This Means for the Rest of the Marketing Year

Taken together, the data suggest that U.S. soybean meal exports are not stalling, but they are redistributing across markets rather than expanding uniformly. This distinction is critical when evaluating export potential for the remainder of 2025/26. Flat headline numbers early in the season do not necessarily preclude stronger performance later, particularly if gains in growing markets offset weakness elsewhere.

Understanding where U.S. exports can realistically grow and where they are likely to face constraints requires looking beyond aggregate totals to the structure of global soybean meal supply and demand.

A Deeper Dive: Demetrica’s Soybean Meal Report Bundle

For readers looking to go beyond early-season trade data, Demetrica Analytics has released a two-report bundle that examines global soybean meal markets in greater depth:

• Rethinking Global Soybean Meal Trade 2025/26, which reassesses USDA projections and includes a bonus first look at the 2026/27 U.S. soybean meal balance sheet

  
  

• Soybean Meal Trade at a Crossroads: Slowing or Being Misread?, which reviews 2024/25 trade flows and evaluates what recent performance implies for the current outlook

  
  

Together, the reports analyze exportable supplies from the United States, Brazil, Argentina, and smaller exporters, assess global import growth potential, and explore why soybean meal demand may be more resilient than suggested by muted official projections.

📄 The report bundle is available for purchase in the Demetrica shop and is designed for market participants seeking a clearer framework for evaluating soybean meal trade as the 2025/26 marketing year unfolds.