U.S. Soybean Meal Exports: Strong Finish and Promising Look Ahead (25 August 2025)

Recent developments in U.S. soybean meal exports have been nothing short of compelling and they’re drawing attention across ag markets and policy circles alike. With the 2024/25 marketing year (October-September) nearing its close, it’s time to look at the numbers and see what they’re telling us about how this year is ending and what momentum might carry into next year.

The August 2025 WASDE report finally adjusted USDA’s U.S. soybean meal export estimate upward to 16.2 million metric tons, a move many analysts and traders expected much earlier. But there’s a catch: USDA’s estimate implies a soft finish to the year, projecting declining exports for the final three months (July-September). This reflects a typically cautious "wait-for-the-data" approach that assumes weaker shipments without strong evidence. However, Export Sales reports tell a slightly different story. July-mid August shipments alone plus strong end-of-August could reach another 2.6 million tons, with another 2.3 million tons in outstanding sales still on the books for the old crop year.

Not all of those sales will ship before the marketing year closes, as historical patterns suggest a steady carryover and some slowdown in activity. But one may also argue that this year can be different. If export pace continues at the current rate, we’re looking at a realistic total of around 16.5 million metric tons, about 260,000 tons higher than USDA’s current number. The chart captures this divergence: the red dotted line represents USDA’s implied monthly expectations, while the yellow dotted line reflects our more bullish scenario.

The momentum is real. With global demand steady and domestic crush expanding due to biofuel policies, U.S. soybean meal is finding more traction across international markets. Stay tuned as we turn toward 2025/26, where the stage may be set for even higher volumes.

Looking Ahead to 2025/26: Why USDA's Export Forecast May Be Too Conservative

Turning to the upcoming 2025/26 marketing year, we believe USDA’s soybean meal export forecast is understated and the gap could prove meaningful. USDA’s export projection is closely linked to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) assessment of global soybean meal demand. However, historical performance suggests FAS continues to underestimate global consumption growth and that’s not just a difference in methodology, but often a result of deeper systemic issues.

Forecast conservatism can arise from a few key sources: overly modest growth rates, insufficient modeling of emerging market dynamics, and a common institutional reluctance to project ahead of verified trade flows. In many cases, analysts hesitate to make upward revisions without trade data “in hand.” While understandable, this approach can lead to lags in aligning official estimates with on-the-ground developments. That matters because accurate demand modeling is critical: it defines how U.S. exports are positioned against major competitors like Argentina and Brazil, and ultimately shapes how U.S. soy products are marketed globally.

Given current global feed demand signals particularly from regions like Southeast Asia, MENA, and Latin America, we see strong potential for U.S. soybean meal to continue expanding its footprint in 2025/26. The risk in FAS’s conservative baseline is that it may miss key market opportunities and leave U.S. exporters reacting to market signals, rather than strategically leading. 

Untapped Demand? Where USDA May Be Missing Soybean Meal Import Growth

We forecast that U.S. soybean meal exports could easily hit 18 million metric tons in 2025/26, yes, a full 1 million tons above USDA’s current projection. This bullish outlook isn’t speculative, it can be easily grounded in market fundamentals, aggressive crush expansion, and overlooked import potential in key global markets. Our number is entirely achievable if even modest adjustments were made to import assumptions for a handful of strategic countries.

By diving into FAS Production, Supply, and Distribution (PSD) data, we can identify several markets where USDA may be understating future soybean meal imports particularly from the U.S. One standout is Bangladesh, which remains a viable destination thanks to continued food aid monetization program. Soybean meal has proven to be a suitable commodity for monetization, and its nutritional value and ease of handling make it a strong candidate for aid-related trade.

Beyond Bangladesh, the projections appear weak or flat in markets like Algeria and Morocco, despite stable poultry and livestock feed demand. Even more surprising is the forecasted decline in EU soybean meal consumption, at a time when European livestock producers are looking for high-protein, reliable feed options, as well as some mixed news about sunflower crop. Other puzzling weak spots include flat import projections for Indonesia, low volumes for Iran (likely a Brazil opportunity), muted growth for Korea and Malaysia, and underwhelming numbers for Mexico, Thailand, and Vietnam. Many of these are long-standing U.S. buyers or show clear signs of growing protein demand.

More broadly, it’s hard to reconcile USDA’s position of just 1% global soybean meal import growth in 2025/26 with recent momentum: the world market grew 10% year-over-year for two straight seasons, and all three major exporters are scaling up crush. The August Oilseeds Circular included a short article noting a global soybean meal consumption “slowdown” but failed to provide a rationale for the projected stagnation. That lack of analytical depth is concerning, especially when the trade needs clear data and insight to plan around global protein supply and needs. With the U.S. poised for record-high crush (maybe even higher than current USDA projection), recognizing and targeting these overlooked markets could unlock major gains for 2025/26 and help align expectations with on-the-ground trade realities.