China's Return to the U.S. Soybean Market? The Export Sales Book Says "Maybe."

For much of 2025 and 2026, China's soybean buying strategy appeared straightforward: buy Brazilian soybeans and buy a lot of them. Brazil harvested another record crop, export supplies were abundant, and Chinese importers aggressively built inventories while prices remained attractive. As a result, U.S. soybean exports to China were not impressive.

What can we expect in the next marketing year? Let's look at USDA's latest Export Sales. The report shows a noticeable improvement in outstanding sales of new-crop (2026/27) soybeans. As of July 23, total forward commitments reached nearly 7.5 million metric tons, nearly three times the level recorded a year ago. China accounts for 2.8 million metric tons, while another 2.8 million metric tons have been booked under unknown destinations. Historically, a meaningful portion of unknown sales is eventually transferred to China, suggesting that Chinese buying interest may be larger than currently reported. On the surface, the numbers are encouraging. After nearly disappearing from the U.S. export book, China appears to be returning as a meaningful buyer.

Encouraging... But Let's Add Some Perspective

Strong year-over-year growth alone does not tell the full story. Even after this rebound, China's current forward commitments represent only 39% of the average outstanding sales recorded during the 2019-2022 marketing years. Even when combining China and unknown destinations, the current export book reaches only 50% of the three-year average from those stronger trading years. In other words, the recovery is real, but the market remains far from normal. The chart below illustrates just how much room remains before forward sales resemble historical levels.

Why Book U.S. Soybeans Now?

This is where the story becomes more interesting. From a purely commercial standpoint, the recent buying appears somewhat counterintuitive. Brazil continues to offer abundant soybean supplies following another exceptional harvest, and Chinese buyers have spent much of the year building inventories from South American origins.

So why return to U.S. soybeans?

One possible explanation is that at least part of these purchases reflects improving diplomatic engagement rather than an immediate shift in commercial fundamentals. With expectations growing that Presidents Trump and Xi could meet later this year (in September 2026), modest U.S. soybean purchases may serve as an early signal that both sides are interested in stabilizing the broader trade relationship. Agricultural purchases have frequently played that role in previous rounds of U.S.-China negotiations.

That interpretation remains speculative, but it aligns with the timing of the bookings and China's continued access to competitively priced Brazilian supplies.

The Export Book Is Not the Same as Exports

There is another important distinction. Outstanding sales are contractual commitments and not physical shipments. Until soybeans are loaded onto vessels and exported, these sales remain subject to cancellation, postponement, or changes in destination. The export book, therefore, reflects buyer intentions at a point in time, not guaranteed exports. That distinction may prove especially important this year. Trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing remain fluid, while broader Section 301 tariff discussions continue. China has indicated it is unwilling to accept substantially higher tariff levels than those currently under discussion. Should negotiations deteriorate, outstanding sales could decline just as quickly as they have recently increased.

A Positive Signal, But Not Yet a Trend

The latest USDA data unquestionably represent the strongest indication in many months that China is once again willing to place U.S. soybeans on its purchasing agenda.

That alone is an encouraging development. However, the numbers also suggest caution. Today's export book remains well below historical norms, and the real test will come later this fall, when these commitments begin to convert into actual shipments. For now, the market has received an encouraging signal, not definitive proof that China's buying strategy has fundamentally shifted. As always, the export commitments tell us what buyers intend to do. The shipment data will tell us what they actually do.